Taking Stock – Trade Speculation, Take 1

The clock keeps ticking…

It doesn’t stop. It never has. It never will. Seconds, minutes, hours, days, weeks, months… time keeps moving, time the Nuggets should be spending on progress. The NBA Draft has come and gone and thus we should start by welcoming our newest family member.

Mr. Lawson comes to us, like coach George Karl, via North Carolina with a quick layover in Minnesota. He is prepared to work towards a time when Chauncey Billups won’t be standing between his name and the top spot on the depth chart, and from what we’ve seen during his days with the Tar Heels, it’s hard not to be optimistic. Those that enjoy the colliegate hardwood offerings understand Lawson was the difference between a good season and a championship for North Carolina. Now he will be working to contribute for the Nuggets and all indications point towards high expectations. Welcome aboard Ty, we hope you enjoy a long and productive stay.

While the move to add Lawson to the roster put a smile on my face, the Nuggets still came into Friday morning with just one new addition for the roster. They traded a protected first-round draft pick (a commodity we pulled via trade from Charlotte) from next season to add Lawson, then using the 34th pick in the Draft to draft Spanish point guard Sergio Llull. However, he was quickly traded to Houston for cash, thus leaving the Nuggets with as many rookies coming out of the Draft as they expected to add coming in.

That also leaves multiple spots on the roster to fill with no room under the salary cap to do so. This is our dilemma and it is the inspiration for the Dunk mini-series titled Taking Stock, offering our views on potential avenues the Nuggets should consider if the desired destination is a title. We addressed the pending free-agent market before the Draft took place. Now, with the orgy that is the introduction to the professional ranks completed and out of our path, we are watching the wheels of the league turn as various trade scenarios and other player movements are pondered, considered, in some cases offered, and in a select few, executed.

As such the Dunk spent time analyzing the various rosters and financial spreadsheets from around the National Basketball Association, and we’ve come away with four optimal partners for trade. We are going to examine each of those potential partners, starting today with the mighty Detroit Pistons.

Understand…

1) In conjuring trade scenarios in the NBA the exchange of players must offer a swap in financial consequence that is, for all intents and purposes, equal. The costs of one side of the trade need to match the other. This, of course, can be alleviated with a check, paying the difference to bring the sides to equal ground. However, for a reasonable speculation of a trade in this league, the sides and combined salaries need to be somewhat equal.

2) The world of the NBA today is as conflicted and volatile as ever, thus it is not as simple as saying, “Team A needs this, Team B needs this, and thus they swap and benefit is found for both.” For many the ability to manipulate the numbers on the bank statements is often the most alluring motivation of all. We will be taking this into account as we put forth our own, contrived speculations.

Last but not least…

3) Understand we are dealing with Joe Dumars. This man has proven extremely successful at this game. Unlike the Nuggets, Detroit has enjoyed sustained success and is known for their ability to evaluate, identify, and acquire opportunity. That will make this particular conversation as challenging as any we enjoy in the days and weeks ahead.

With all of this said, we have identified the Pistons as a team capable of serving as a beneficial trade partner for one major reason: they have money. The Pistons are currently looking at an approximate salary number of $39.2 million, one of few teams holding significant space between their current number and the projected $69 million salary cap likely to be set by the league this season. It is crucial for the Nuggets to find such a partner, for the commodities they would like to move will require such conditions. If you prefer, use simple logic: if you don’t have the room for the numbers, in today’s market, you are much less likely to consider more.

The Pistons have made some recent moves that intrigue. They recently traded forward Amir Johnson to Milwaukee in exchange for fellow forward Fabricio Oberto, coming (originally) from the Spurs. As we noted their numbers are similar but the Pistons found value in freedom that will come in releasing Oberto. His contract, set for $3.8 million next season, is not guaranteed. If he is released by July 1st he is paid just $1.9 million, thus giving the Pistons an option to create additional cap space.

Even in dismissing Oberto, the Pistons will only need to fill 4-5 roster spots and will have as much dough to do so as any other team in the league. Rumors suggest the team is looking to launch a full-scale reconstruction of their team and as such more changes may be coming. The grapevine reports Tayshaun Prince could be traded (due for $10.3 million next season). Richard “Rip” Hamilton will make $11.6 million next year and then will fall off the books. Allen Iverson comes off the books this season, as do Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess.

The result is an organization with the luxury of targeting top free agents during this offseason with a roster that will open more room under the cap at the end of the coming season. The Pistons could pursue any one of several big names (Carlos Boozer, Steve Nash, Ben Gordon, Ron Artest, David Lee… just to list a few) that may hit the open market in July. They could go with youth, save money, and hit the extraordinary free-agent market that awaits in 2010. They have options… and that makes the Pistons an enticing fit as a potential trade partner for the Nuggets.

The man that drives our imaginations would be Mr. Prince. Of all the players considered “available for hire,” either via trade or free agency, this year, Prince may be the best fit for a Denver team facing a window of opportunity. He plays at the three but could easily fill the two if he shared the floor with Melo (and you better BELIEVE he’s sharing the floor with Melo), or you could push Melo to the four to fit the personnel. Prince is a complete player, touting handle with a knack for the clutch pass while knocking it down from the perimeter. He plays defense, he doesn’t turn the ball over, and he knows how to fill the role. Take it to draft speak: he’s got high basketball I.Q. and the skills to make good on it.

He would be the supreme compliment to Melo and The Solution – if you haven’t gotten on our “If A.I. is The Answer, Chauncey is The Solution” bandwagon yet, you should.

However, we bring this particular thought to the floor first (we have three other teams coming) for a reason. The financial opportunities for the Nuggets in these dealings would more than likely be limited. In the most perfect of circumstances you will kick the outrageously-painful contract of Kenyon Martin along in the deal… but the number of teams willing to consider such a sacrifice are very, very few. I don’t believe the Pistons are one of them, based on the rumors and moves already established, not to mention the intelligence of the man at the helm of those negotiations for the Motor City.

The Pistons are willing to deal Prince off now because his current contract runs for two more years and is rather substantial, good for $10.3 million this year and $11.1 million next. Hamilton has one year left, so he’s optimal for their apparent plans of rebuilding over the next two periods of free agency. The money they get this year, the continued gifts from an expiring Kwame Brown contract, keeping Rodney Stuckey (two years with an option on the third left, all at low numbers)… it all points to the scenario of desire we listed before. They want contracts that die this year and they want youth with low numbers to fill in for now.

This is where Denver matches in well. As we’ve asserted for some time, Smitty is the one commodity that fits that bill. Registered at $5.5 million this year and $6.0 next, he is considered a bargain and is a pure scoring machine. He failed to fit the evolved Karl system with enhanced, sold-by-Chauncey defense, he proved frustrating for the big three that struggled to get him on the team rather than the individual, and to be perfectly honest, we have probably seen everything Smitty can and will be in this league.

Prince is everything Smitty is not, and his price tag reflects it.

This is where issues arise. Making those numbers work is difficult as the Nuggets can’t afford to give more players than they get in return. In other words, these teams would either (a) bring a third team into the picture to help even things out, or (b) include additional players and blow the deal out. The three-team deal opens a world of possibilities and could bring any and all into the discussion. We aren’t going there… but we’ll run at the big dog and see if it wants to bite.

The Nuggets give Kenyon Martin ($15.6 million), J.R. Smith ($5.5 million), Renaldo Balkman ($2.1 million), and Linas Kleiza ($2.7 million). Detroit returns Tayshaun Prince ($10.3 million), Jason Maxiell ($5 million), and Rip Hamilton ($11.6 million).

Kleiza signs for the qualifying offer (a move Denver was not going to make anyway, thus they are not “losing” players in this deal) and is dead after this year. Balkman is guaranteed this year and next year is optional, and he gives the Pistons a respectable post presence they no longer own without Rasheed in the mix.  The savings on Maxiell over the life of his contract ($5 million over the next three with a player option for the same in the fourth) cancels the loss suffered in taking Kenyon’s number for next year, so that comes off the Detroit cap number sooner. They dump Tayshaun and trade in for a younger, cheaper Smitty (we upgrade in our way, they upgrade in theirs).

It will never happen… but if it did, I would wet myself. It would solidify the Nuggets as one of the best three teams in the West. The Lakers are the Lakers (assuming they sign Ariza, as promised) and now the Spurs, getting Richard Jefferson, are right back in the hunt. This is a bold move that would give Detroit the gifts of timely cap space while providing the Nuggets with the ideal third wheel.

It would be progress.

Next time around, we’ll get dirty down south. Thanks for stopping in.

Tags: Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Joe Dumars, NBA Draft, NBA Free Agency, NBA Trade, Tayshaun Prince, Ty Lawson