Taking Stock – Trade Speculation, Take 2

A moment of honesty… I have delayed this submission for two reasons.

First and foremost, while I am giddy with events of the NBA offseason and all of the room for speculation and unjustified drama it brings, I viewed July 1st as a critical part of the equation. On July 1st, those marked as restricted free agents are set free. If their current employer fails to secure their services with a qualifying offer or a new contract extension, they hit the open market.

In the past this moment has represented the gateway to hardwood bedlam. Teams foolish with finance were quick offer deals to those new-found candidates for employment.

The Clippers would float an offensive offer to a player best known for injury or petulance or the love of nature’s gifts and we could all enjoy a good laugh.

The Sixers would fill the wallet of a guy best known his name rather than his game, an eventual downfall the entire world could see coming, with hopes of finding fuel left in an obviously-empty tank.

The Knicks would hire Isiah Thomas and give him full control of the wheel (and with his history of business fortune, who wouldn’t?). The Big Apple would watch Zeke work his magic, signing Eddy Curry (the only thing bigger than his ego would be the hole in his resume where health and performance used to live), Jamal Crawford (always known as a team-first guy), Stephon Marbury (too easy… I’m letting it go), Steve Francis (again, we’ll keep moving), and Zach Randolph (I presume the existing roster lobbied for a good connect in the locker room… you know, to keep their minds right). The rest of us could enjoy the attempts at shock and dismay when the ship burned to the ground.

We may not be getting that this season as the league withers in the face of the world’s economy. Forget the obvious need to see what teams do, who they re-sign, and who hits the open market. With the rise of Twitter I have been mourning the loss of what would have been an offseason dripping with humor and joy.

Ohhhhhh what could have been.

The second reason for delay is a bit more tangent. In my initial plans for this mini-series on the NBA offseason and what I would hope lies ahead for the Denver Nuggets, I tried to formulate a model reflecting my own beliefs in the definition of value and progress for this team while spicing the views with my personal bias. With that in mind I hit Detroit first and am now ready to launch in my speculation of a potential relationship with the Atlanta Hawks.

Unfortunately, I’ve come to view Tayshaun Prince as the sexiest piece of self-made enjoyment in the group – it may not be realistic but it sure gets my mouth watering – and I’ve come to wonder exactly how the Hawks are approaching this offseason and what they plan to do moving forward.

Much like Denver, Atlanta approached the door of a breakthrough campaign and gave it a good, hard knock… but they weren’t invited in. There is a young roster loaded with talent and opportunity and the Hawks would seem wise to consider a few moves to encourage progress in 2009-10.

They’ve used the trade market to add the piece that officially presents the Hawks with those kinds of options.

In dealing to obtain Jamal Crawford from the Golden State Warriors the Hawks are sending a message but the true motivations could be up for debate. At face value the word attached to this transaction suggest the Hawks will look very similar to the roster put on the court last season. General manager Rick Sund was facing an offseason with several decisions. Mike Bibby, Flip Murray, and Zaza Pachulia all hit the market as unrestricted free agents while Marvin Williams and Josh Childress were listed as restricted free agents until the 1st. Add rumors putting Josh Smith in trade talks and the only pieces you had locked in were Joe Johnson, Al Horford, Maurice Evans, and Randolph Morris.

Now, thanks to Crawford, Sund has options. “This (the Crawford trade) helps us in that we’ve got some options in either way we go,” Sund told the Associated Press. “If we get Bibby, fine, that’s great. We’d like him back. If we don’t get Mike and he goes elsewhere, we’re covered. We got a guy who can play with Joe (Johnson).”

He is right. It opens the door for the team to consider all options. Best of all, it could give the Hawks, a team facing a budget well below the anticipated $69 million salary cap without numbers added for those free agents ($42 million for JJ, Smith, Horford, Crawford, Evans and Morris), room to pursue a favorable roster while still coming in under the cap (i.e. making money).

And this brings us to the question of the hour…

What happens now?

The rumors putting Josh Smith on the trade table are driven by his inability to formulate chemistry with the Atlanta Hawks of last season. He struggled with minor injuries, he failed to work with consistency, and the mill indicates he was a detriment in the locker room (apparently unhappy that JJ and Horford have become the focal points for the offense). Now you’ve added Crawford, another shooter, and Josh is due for some handsome paychecks in the seasons to come – $10.8 million next year, $11.6 million the year after, $12.2 million the year after that, and (yet again) $13.0 million in 2012-13. That’s a ton of dough to dedicate to a misfit you no longer need.

Bibby made $15 million last season. How much is too much to trim from the low ball if you really want to keep him in the fold? Remember, Bibby was crucial to the playoff run last season, and while Crawford can play the point, it would be a significant compromise to make, depending on the view of newly-drafted point guard Jeff Teague. Comparisons to Devin Harris conjure positive emotions and many think Teague is the point guard of the future for Atlanta, but nothing is certain. Three negative bullet points stand out on his final scouting reports: struggles with turnovers, has struggled with minor injuries, will need work to fill the point at the professional level. He’s known as a scorer, not a facilitator, and while that could change it would require time. You can gamble on Crawford and Teague running at the point, but it might be best to bring Bibby back for one more go with Crawford at the two and JJ and the three.

(Ed.Note: If you haven’t picked up on it yet, I’ll give you a hint. I’m using this offseason as an excuse to create elaborate plans for the Nuggets based on my own bias and desires. I want to be the GM. I would encourage you all to do the same with your teams… unless you are a fan of the Knicks, it’s much more entertaining than you realize, and yes, I’m readily willing to admit it’s jacked from the Sports Guy.)

The beauty of a trade with Atlanta would be Marvin Williams. As we noted with Prince, it is a specific player needed to fill the role of third wheel for the Denver Nuggets. You need to be able to score without an irresponsible approach to doing so. You need to play defense. You need to contribute to an open floor, and you need to be willing to drive to the hoop. Williams is noted as an achiever in all of those aspects. Understand he plays at the 3… and that’s Melo. However, while his offerings thus far have been a bit muted – in larger part due to continued struggles with back spasms (another reason why the Hawks would be willing to deal) – he has shown tremendous potential and could be a significant contributor to a team effort.

This is where Denver could step in.

The ideas we’ve been operating our fantasy Nuggets roster under are simple. We need to trim financial fat. We need to free some form of cap space to add better role players. We need to replace J.R. Smith with a player that can enhance this team’s overall power (we can debate if that’s being done now, and I’ll start that argument with the Western Conference Finals). If we can find another power forward with a bit more offense and a bit less salary, we’ll go big with the offer and see if we can’t sell Kenyon’s two years for something more palpable in return.

And we need to be progressive, ‘cause the Lakers and Spurs are being progressive.

Williams fits the role, and so does Smith. If you read the scouting on Smith before this season the key notes suggest (a) he can drive the lane with finesse and power, (b) he has been a proven shot blocker with surprising quickness and intelligence on defense, and (c) that he has served as a leader, in emotion and performance, in the past and has the skills to do so again. In Atlanta I question the environment and wonder if a change of scenery, joining proven veteran talents like Melo and Chauncey, wouldn’t bring that Josh Smith back. This last season was tough for Josh. He was forcing outside shots and may have been trying, in a horrific way, to adjust to Horford’s presence in the middle (I would question if coaching didn’t play a role as well… it’s not like Horford was lighting the world on fire before last season and they really want him to progress, thus keeping Josh out of the paint may have been a consequence of that effort).

It would be a gamble. J-Smooth has a ton of dough coming his way with three years left on his deal, but again, it’s about perspective. Smith will save the Nuggets $4 million this season at the starting 4 with an additional $5 million in savings next year when compared to the cost of Kenyon, and they are essentially the same player at this point in time… they are strong in different aspects of their own games, but they are, for all intents and purposes, the same player. If Karl & Company could coax the ol’ J-Smooth back to hardwood, that contract could be viewed as an asset.

The trade for Crawford has opened that door. That move could make Marvin Williams available for discussion. Josh Smith was already available for discussion. There is an opportunity to get more players in return (the numbers need to match within reason, so saving money is tied to perspective… I’m suggesting the opportunity to not pay Kenyon $16 million next season is saving money no matter how you cut it).

There is an opportunity to progress.

The Nuggets give Kenyon Martin ($15.6 million), Anthony Carter (sign/trade for $2 million), Smitty ($5.5 million), and Steven Hunter’s expiring contract ($3.7 million). The Hawks give Josh Smith ($10.8 million), Marvin Williams ($7.3 million), Josh Childress ($4.8 million), Flip Murray ($2.0 million), and cash to even it out (about $2 million… they have the cap room to do it, with ease).

(Ed.Note: We discussed Josh Childress in depth during the Free Agent post a few days ago. The Nuggets would need to talk to him and his agent to see what could be done about getting him back in the States and out of his deal in Greece. He’s said to have an opt-out clause he can exercise, and if they could get him signed at a reasonable number he would complete the guard corps for the Nuggets moving forward… Chauncey and Ty at the point, Marvin and Josh and possibly Dahntay at the 2.)

It’s now 12:54am and I’m seeing the Nuggets have tendered the qualifying offer the Linas. That could spell the death of hopes for an exciting offseason for Denver, but only time will tell. Both Boozer and Okur are staying put in Utah. Smitty is set for a 30-day stint… should be some good cards going on there.

We’ll bring Trade Speculation Take 3 soon, and we’ll take it back to the Midwest for a quick stop on the plains.

Thanks for stopping in.

Tags: Anthony Carter, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Denver Nuggets, Flip Murray, J.R. Smith, Josh Childress, Josh Smith, Kenyon Martin, Marvin Williams, Mike Bibby, NBA Free Agency, NBA Trade, Rick Sund