‘Twas the Night Before…

It may not be December, but as the snow falls on a crisp Denver night and the Nuggets prepare to set it off for the 2009-10 season…

… it sure feels like Christmas.

Let’s start with a quick release of information. Here at the Dunk you won’t find too many “let’s review that game” posts… we watch every single game you can find on Altitude, Fox Sports, TNT, ESPN, NBC, or the NBA Network (we even make it down to Pepsi from time to time), but we won’t be reporting on each and every bounce of the ball that happens over the next 82 games.

For the bulk of the regular season we will be checking in as often as possible with thoughts and observations, with links and news, and, on occasion, deliveries from the heart. We will do all we can to keep you in the know on any and everything Denver Nuggets, and we can promise this: our heart is on our sleeve and it is tinged with a desire to remain objective, but we are fans of faith.

And we have faith in the Denver Nuggets.

Let’s start it off with a review of our favorite links from the last few days (it hasn’t been that long since we checked in with some of the latest, but with the season launching into action this evening, the vines are buzzing).

- Jeremy at the Roundball Mining Company (part of ESPN’s TrueHoop Network) came in with his official team preview for the season… and like us, he views a ton of potential in the season ahead, feeling the assertions of today will prove worthless tomorrow. “It might be difficult to be impressed with a team whose primary goal is to save money, but the Denver Nuggets are becoming quite adept at bolstering the roster while cutting costs. Last season they rummaged through the bargain bin and came up with Chris “Birdzilla” Andersen and Dahntay Jones. This year they brought in more cheap talent in Aaron Afflalo and Joey Graham. They are both cheaper options and better fits than Jones and Kleiza were. Plus the addition of Ty Lawson to backup Chaunc­ey Billups will pay dividends as soon as George Karl chooses to give him the job over Anthony Carter. “

- The fine folks at DirecTV are giving the fans a free preview of the NBA League Pass. You can enjoy until November 3rd.

- Stickin’ with Skeets once more, here’s the Denver preview from Ball Don’t Lie (the Yahoo blog offering for NBA fans).

- Nate Timmons with the Denver Stiffs spent some time talking with the heads out in Los Angeles as they ponder the season ahead.

- Butterfield over at The Chris Andersen Files believes the early words of warning from GM Mark Warkentein are nothing more than a preemptive strike against a slow start.

- Andrew Feinstein from the Stiffs believes the entire season rests in the hands of Melo Man Ace… that’s a drum we started beating some time ago.

- Andrew also came in recently with some entertaining predictions for the season ahead.

- Travis Heath, the west-minded man at HoopsWorld.com, believes the Nuggies are on target for a strong campaign.

- John Hollinger, the guru for the Worldwide Leader, isn’t so sure.

- The Sports Guy is pretty sure Travis and John are way off beat.

- As usual, the Nugg Doctor brought a thorough review of the preseason win over the Lakers.

- The Doctor also brought us this clip of Melo’s latest ad op with the infamous Debo and skateboard/reality star Rob Dyrdek…

- Ben Hochman with the Post is happy to see the Nuggets avoided any temptation to give S-Jax a look.

- Sea Note from The Chris Andersen Files is ready to see Ty Lawson learning by fire.

- Chris Dempsey with the Post is preaching patience with the kid. He also warns fans not to sleep on Arron Afflalo while Smitty is spending time on suspension.

And thus we stand on the precipice… looking over the vast stretch of the 09-10 season that lies ahead, and as I push the Broncos and Tiger and all of my other distractions aside, here is what I see.

While Melo owns the keys and Chauncey is at the wheel, the Nuggets need Nene to make it all worthwhile.

If there is one player I want to see in the mix this season, from beginning to end, it is Fogo De Chao… for a multitude of reasons.

1) The teams that are set to compete in the Western Conference stand out from the others due to their presence in the lane. The Spurs, one of the more hotly debated teams heading into this season, are going to need a respectable contribution from Tim Duncan (even during the regular season, despite the industry’s push to give him as much rest as possible) to have a shot at competing for the Finals. The Lakers may be pushing Ron Artest as their ticket to a repeat but everyone on the West Coast knows Andrew Bynum could be the difference between another set of rings and frustration. Without Yao, folks are ready and willing to write off Houston.

Nene is our power in the lane… at least that is belief I want to hold. Chris Andersen was signed to bolster the cause on defense, and if I see anything from that investment it better be work from Fogo on offense. Those big men we mentioned before… the one in need rest (Duncan) is without proper assistance in the post, the other (Bynum) is ready to flourish with it (Gasol and Odom), and the final was lost without it.

You can talk about the necessity of star performance from Melo, the guidance and veteran leadership of Chauncey, and the potential of Smitty, The Kid, and Afflalo. If Nene doesn’t take another step forward, the Nuggets will struggle to do so as well.

What is Kenyon set to deliver for the cost?

If the Nuggets were to find a moment of honesty they would admit two things: they intentionally hit the offseason with no intentions of adding any unnecessary cost to the payroll, and the primary reason for this was Kenyon Martin and his unbelievably inflated contract. It is one of, if not the, worst contracts in the NBA. I understand this is a league bloated with wasteful spending, but in review of simple production versus cost, K-Mart is, at best, a liability.

With that said…

… Kenyon had moments of brilliance last season. He enjoyed a string of uncanny health and he put it to use. On defense he was a nightmare matchup for the bulk of the league, and while inconsistent on offense, he was often explosive and capable of offensive force we haven’t seen since he was a kid at Cincy.

He could be the additional force down low to help Nene, and he could be the difference, from time to time, when needed.

There were times when I heard fans suggesting he was finally earning his money. I would like to think this season… from beginning to middle to end… would be a time when such suggestions were proven true.

It is now, or never.

It may not be what you want to hear but the writing is on the wall. The NBA’s salary cap went down this season and commissioner David Stern has warned it is likely to go down again at the end of this campaign. With that in mind, the big five on the Denver roster already locked into numbers will be pushing the Nuggets over that number by themselves, meaning each and every dollar spent on the other eight players will be doubled in luxury tax.

You need to prepare for the inevitable my friends. If the Nuggets continue to hold on to their values in efficient spending and emphasis on cutting costs, the only logical expectation for the end of the 2009-10 season is a complete and total reinvention of the roster. The Nuggets will be in the market to deal and anything, with (I would hope) one or two exceptions, will be on the table.

There are no guarantees at that point. We know this team, today, can compete. That makes today as important as ever.

For now…

… give Boozer, Deron, and the Mormons a heartfelt welcome to Denver and thank them for getting us started down the road.

Thanks for stopping in. Enjoy Game #1.

Tags: Arron Afflalo, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Chris Andersen, Denver Nuggets, J.R. Smith, Nene, Ty Lawson, Utah Jazz